期刊
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
卷 149, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268821002405
关键词
COVID-19; evidence synthesis; Bayesian inference; infection fatality rate
资金
- European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under ReCoDID grant [825746]
- Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Institute of Genetics (CIHR-IG) [01886-000]
- H2020 Societal Challenges Programme [825746] Funding Source: H2020 Societal Challenges Programme
Estimating the infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is challenging due to biases in death and infection data. Bayesian evidence synthesis method accounts for uncertainties. Results show lower IFR in younger and wealthier populations.
Estimating the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) infection fatality rate (IFR) has proven to be particularly challenging -and rather controversial- due to the fact that both the data on deaths and the data on the number of individuals infected are subject to many different biases. We consider a Bayesian evidence synthesis approach which, while simple enough for researchers to understand and use, accounts for many important sources of uncertainty inherent in both the seroprevalence and mortality data. With the understanding that the results of one's evidence synthesis analysis may be largely driven by which studies are included and which are excluded, we conduct two separate parallel analyses based on two lists of eligible studies obtained from two different research teams. The results from both analyses are rather similar. With the first analysis, we estimate the COVID-19 IFR to be 0.31% [95% credible interval (CrI) of (0.16%, 0.53%)] for a typical community-dwelling population where 9% of the population is aged over 65 years and where the gross-domestic-product at purchasing-power-parity (GDP at PPP) per capita is $17.8k (the approximate worldwide average). With the second analysis, we obtain 0.32% [95% CrI of (0.19%, 0.47%)]. Our results suggest that, as one might expect, lower IFRs are associated with younger populations (and may also be associated with wealthier populations). For a typical community-dwelling population with the age and wealth of the United States we obtain IFR estimates of 0.43% and 0.41%; and with the age and wealth of the European Union, we obtain IFR estimates of 0.67% and 0.51%.
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