Machine Learning Evaluation of Biliary Atresia Patients to Predict Long-Term Outcome after the Kasai Procedure

Kasai portoenterostomy (KP) represents the first-line treatment for biliary atresia (BA). The purpose was to compare the accuracy of quantitative parameters extracted from laboratory tests, US imaging, and MR imaging studies using machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict the long-term medical outcome in native liver survivor BA patients after KP. Twenty-four patients were evaluated according to clinical and laboratory data at initial evaluation (median follow-up = 9.7 years) after KP as having ideal (n = 15) or non-ideal (n = 9) medical outcomes. Patients were re-evaluated after an additional 4 years and classified in group 1 (n = 12) as stable and group 2 (n = 12) as non-stable in the disease course. Laboratory and quantitative imaging parameters were merged to test ML algorithms. Total and direct bilirubin (TB and DB), as laboratory parameters, and US stiffness, as an imaging parameter, were the only statistically significant parameters between the groups. The best algorithm in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and AUCROC was naive Bayes algorithm, selecting only laboratory parameters (TB and DB). This preliminary ML analysis confirms the fundamental role of TB and DB values in predicting the long-term medical outcome for BA patients after KP, even though their values may be within the normal range. Physicians should be alert when TB and DB values change slightly.

Automated summary

This study utilized machine learning algorithms to extract quantitative parameters from laboratory tests, US imaging, and MR imaging to predict the long-term medical outcome in native liver survivor BA patients after KP. The results suggest that TB and DB values play a crucial role in predicting disease progression, and physicians should pay attention to changes in these values.