COVID-19 pandemic risk and probability of loan default: evidence from marketplace lending market

As the COVID-19 pandemic adversely affects the financial markets, a better understanding of the lending dynamics of a successful marketplace is necessary under the conditions of financial distress. Using the loan book database of Mintos (Latvia) and employing logit regression method, we provide evidence of the pandemic-induced exposure to default risk in the marketplace lending market. Our analysis indicates that the probability of default increases from 0.056 in the pre-pandemic period to 0.079 in the post-pandemic period. COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on default risk during May and June of 2020. We also find that the magnitude of the impact of COVID-19 risk is higher for borrowers with lower credit ratings and in countries with low levels of FinTech adoption. Our main findings are robust to sample selection bias allowing for a better understanding of and quantifying risks related to FinTech loans during the pandemic and periods of overall economic distress.

Automated summary

The research shows that the COVID-19 pandemic has a significant negative impact on the marketplace lending sector, leading to an increase in default risk, especially in May and June of 2020. The impact of COVID-19 risk is greater for borrowers with lower credit ratings and in countries with lower levels of FinTech adoption.