期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
卷 51, 期 4, 页码 2178-2185出版社
AMER CHEMICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6b03745
关键词
-
资金
- NASA Applied Science program [NNX11AI52G]
- EPA STAR program [RD-83503701]
The Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Three-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system is extended to treat the MOSAIC aerosol model in VVRF-Chem, and to be capable of assimilating surface PM2.5 concentrations. The coupled GSI-WRF-Chem system is applied to reproduce aerosol levels over China during an extremely polluted winter month, January 2013. After assimilating surface PM2.5 concentrations, the correlation coefficients between observations and model results averaged over the assimilated sites are improved from 0.67 to 0.94. At nonassimilated sites, improvements (higher correlation coefficients and lower mean bias errors (MBE) and root-mean square errors (RMSE)) are also found in PM2.5, PM10, and AOD predictions. Using the constrained aerosol fields, we estimate that the PM2.5 concentrations in January 2013 might have caused 7550 premature deaths in Jing-Jin-Ji areas, which are 2% higher than the estimates using unconstrained aerosol fields. We also estimate that the daytime monthly mean anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) to be -29.9W/m(2) at the surface, 27.0W/m(2) inside the atmosphere, and -2.9W/m(2) at the top of the atmosphere. Our estimates update the previously reported overestimations along Yangtze River region and underestimations in North China. This GSI-WRF-Chem system would also be potentially useful for air quality forecasting in China.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据