Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the provision of ecosystem services in rice agro-ecosystems

Irrigated rice croplands are among the world's most important agro-ecosystems. They provide food for more than 3.5 billion people and a range of other ecosystem services (ESS). However, the sustainability of rice agro-ecosystems is threatened by continuing climate and land-use changes. To estimate their combined effects on a bundle of ESS, we applied the vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL to seven study areas in the Philippines and Vietnam. We quantified future changes in the provision of four essential ESS (carbon storage, carbon sequestration, provision of irrigation water and rice production) under two climate scenarios (until 2100) and three site-specific land-use scenarios (until 2030), and examined the synergies and trade-offs in ESS responses to these drivers. Our results show that not all services can be provided in the same amounts in the future. In the Philippines and Vietnam the projections estimated a decrease in rice yields (by approximately 30%) and in carbon storage (by 15%) and sequestration (by 12%) towards the end of the century under the current land-use pattern. In contrast, the amount of available irrigation water was projected to increase in all scenarios by 10%-20%. However, the results also indicate that land-use change may partially offset the negative climate impacts in regions where cropland expansion is possible, although only at the expense of natural vegetation. When analysing the interactions between ESS, we found consistent synergies between rice production and carbon storage and trade-offs between carbon storage and provision of irrigation water under most scenarios. Our results show that not only the effects of climate and land-use change alone but also the interaction between ESS have to be considered to allow sustainable management of rice agro-ecosystems under global change.