Fractional-Order Modelling and Optimal Control of Cholera Transmission

A Caputo-type fractional-order mathematical model for metapopulation cholera transmission was recently proposed in [Chaos Solitons Fractals 117 (2018), 37-49]. A sensitivity analysis of that model is done here to show the accuracy relevance of parameter estimation. Then, a fractional optimal control (FOC) problem is formulated and numerically solved. A cost-effectiveness analysis is performed to assess the relevance of studied control measures. Moreover, such analysis allows us to assess the cost and effectiveness of the control measures during intervention. We conclude that the FOC system is more effective only in part of the time interval. For this reason, we propose a system where the derivative order varies along the time interval, being fractional or classical when more advantageous. Such variable-order fractional model, that we call a FractInt system, shows to be the most effective in the control of the disease.

Automated summary

In this study, a Caputo-type fractional-order mathematical model for metapopulation cholera transmission was analyzed for parameter estimation accuracy. A fractional optimal control (FOC) problem was formulated and solved, followed by a cost-effectiveness analysis to assess control measures. The conclusion was that a variable-order fractional model, termed as the FractInt system, was the most effective for disease control.