4.2 Article

Expert and novice sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games

期刊

JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING
卷 16, 期 6, 页码 1370-1391

出版社

SOC JUDGMENT & DECISION MAKING

关键词

environmental regularities; heuristic decision making; predictions; expert and novice decision making; signal detection theory

向作者/读者索取更多资源

The study found that expert predictions for NFL games generally follow environmental regularities, while novice predictions do not. The results support the idea that using heuristics adapted to the decision environment can support accurate predictions and be an indicator of expertise.
We study whether experts and novices differ in the way they make predictions about National Football League games. In particular, we measure to what extent their predictions are consistent with five environmental regularities that could support decision making based on heuristics. These regularities involve the home teamwinning more often, the team with the better win-loss record winning more often, the team favored by the majority of media experts winning more often, and two others related to surprise wins and losses in the teams' previous game. Using signal detection theory and hierarchical Bayesian analysis, we show that expert predictions for the 2017 National Football League (NFL) season generally follow these regularities in a near optimal way, but novice predictions do not. These results support the idea that using heuristics adapted to the decision environment can support accurate predictions and be an indicator of expertise.

作者

我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。

评论

主要评分

4.2
评分不足

次要评分

新颖性
-
重要性
-
科学严谨性
-
评价这篇论文

推荐

暂无数据
暂无数据