Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Brazilian Hydrothermal System

Hydropower has been the predominant source of electrical energy supply in Brazil, with significant increasing participation share of thermal and wind power plants. From 2000 to 2012, on average, 91% of Brazilian effective electric generation was provided by hydropower, while the reservoir system operated, on average, at 68% of the active storage. From 2013 to 2020, 73% was supplied by hydropower plants, with only 39% of active storage. Demand increase, delays in expanding the system, and a series of moderate to severe droughts occurred in Brazil over the last eight years have contributed to bringing the power system to its current state of low storage levels and intense dispatch of the thermal plants. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 hit the country hard and brought an abrupt reduction in energy demand, with persistent impacts expected for the coming years. On average, 7.5 GW or 9.7% reduction is expected for the next three years in power demand. To deal with the reduction in demand, a well-planned adaptation strategy is urgently needed. It is important to plan how to efficiently combine reduction of dispatching the most expensive thermal plants and recover water levels of reservoir storage and productivity in the complex hydrosystem with over 150 reservoirs. To determine the tradeoff and adaptation strategy, we use the HIDROTERM model, a nonlinear programming optimization model previously developed for planning the operation of the Brazilian hydrothermal system for analysis by comparing results with demand forecasts before and during the pandemic and under different hydrological scenarios.

Automated summary

Hydropower has been the main source of electrical energy in Brazil, but thermal and wind power plants are playing a more significant role. The power system is facing challenges due to demand increase, system expansion delays, and droughts, leading to low reservoir levels and increased dispatch of thermal plants. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a sudden reduction in energy demand, highlighting the need for an adaptation strategy.