Prospects for yield improvement in the Australian wheat industry: a perspective

For the Australian grains industry, recent progress in wheat yield (the dominant crop) due to genetic improvement and advances in agronomy is assessed, and we propose some of the emerging technologies that are likely to contribute to yield gain in the medium (10-20 years) term. Advances in yield will be underpinned by new genetics tailored to agronomic technologies with progress in water-limited yield potential expected to increase from current levels of ca. 0.5% per year. This increase will be achieved by selecting traits with greater water productivity, tolerance to frost and high temperature, and resistance to a range of soil constraints through access to novel genetic diversity, and deployment of targeted biotechnology and tools to improve confidence in phenotyping and environmental characterization. Hybrid cereals should halve the time to cultivar delivery to less than 6 years while allowing for more rapid incorporation and delivery of new traits, and capacity to exploit heterosis. There will be better adoption of recent technologies (such as variable-rate technology, soil testing, soil amelioration, and timely sowing) with the potential to increase yield by 10-80%. Novel technology packages such as earlier sowing systems will be enabled by improvements in integrated weed management, seasonal climate forecasting, plastic mulches, materials science, information and communication technologies, and weather monitoring and soil sensing. With a conservative assumption about maintaining the current rate of genetic progress at 0.5% per year, ongoing adoption of current and new agronomic technologies, continuing investment in R&D, and farm consolidation, at a whole industry level, annual gains in wheat yields of around 20 kg/ha (0.8-1.0%) are feasible over the next 20 years. These gains are likely to be attenuated by only a modest impact (< 10% reduction) on crop yield potential due to the negative impacts of climate change.