期刊
URBAN STUDIES
卷 59, 期 1, 页码 178-196出版社
SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD
DOI: 10.1177/0042098020976019
关键词
economic processes; finance; housing; affordability; housing risk
This paper explores the properties of dynamic aggregate housing models, finding that traditional models overlook the impact of housing risk and credit markets on capital costs, with models introducing a housing risk premium acting as an additional price stabilizer, potentially of significance in forecasting and policy analysis.
This paper explores the properties of dynamic aggregate housing models. In conventional models, in response to demand shocks the primary adjustment mechanism is through prices and changes in housing supply. However, the size of the supply response depends on the price elasticity of supply and in countries such as the UK where the elasticity is low, house prices can rise sharply, worsening affordability. But this ignores the roles of housing risk and credit markets which affect the user cost of capital and the paper demonstrates that models that explicitly introduce a housing risk premium have an additional price stabiliser. The importance is shown through stochastic simulations; these simulations also demonstrate that conventional models used for forecasting and policy analysis may overstate future house price growth.
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