Recent advances in modeling the risk of mycotoxin contamination in crops

Recent advances confirm the focus in modeling mycotoxin in few crops; cereals, both small grains and maize, deserve major attention. Deoxinivalenol is still the mycotoxin of major interest in wheat, with some studies developed on T-2 and HT-2 toxins. Regarding maize, after fumonisins, the interest moved to aflatoxins. Minor efforts were devoted to aflatoxin contamination in nuts and ochratoxin A in grapes. Weather data are the main driving variables used as input in all modeling approaches, in empiric models commonly supported by cropping data. Few example of mechanistic models were developed, but they seem more promising in the future, when climate change is expected to significantly impact on mycotoxins.