期刊
ONE EARTH
卷 5, 期 1, 页码 86-97出版社
CELL PRESS
DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.008
关键词
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资金
- European Research Council Synergy grant [SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P]
- ANR [ANR-16-CONV-0003_Cland]
- GENCI-TGCC [2020-A0070106328]
- Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) [NE/I012915/1, NE/S001166/1]
- Swedish Research Council FORMAS [2016-01201, 2019-01151]
- Swedish National Space Agency [209/19]
- Nunataryuk (EU) [773421]
- Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at the Lund University Centre for Scientific and Technical Computing (Lunarc) [2021/2-61, 2021/2-28]
- Linkod ping University [snic2020/5-563]
- strategic research areas Modeling the Regional and Global Earth System (MERGE) at Lund University
- Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing Climate (BECC) at Lund University
- H2020 CRESCENDO project [641816]
- Swedish Research Council [2018-05973]
- Swiss National Science Foundation [200020_172476, 200020_200511, PCEFP2_181115]
- European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program [641816, 820989, 821003]
- Swiss National Science Foundation
- German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) through the PalMod programme [01LP1507B, 01LP1921A]
- Academy of Finland [296887, 334422]
- Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry [VN/28562/2020]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [2021QNA6005]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [42101090, 41988101]
- Danish National Research Foundation [DNRF100]
- Academy of Finland (AKA) [334422, 296887, 296887, 334422] Funding Source: Academy of Finland (AKA)
- Formas [2016-01201, 2019-01151] Funding Source: Formas
- NERC [NE/S001166/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Northern peatlands are at risk from climate warming and soil drying, which could result in increased CO2 emissions and methane release. Our study highlights the importance of understanding the potential carbon losses from northern peatlands in future warming scenarios.
Northern peatlands store 300-600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO2 and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO2 source and a substantial increase in CH4 emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming by 0.21 degrees C (range, 0.09-0.49 degrees C) by the year 2300. The true warming impact of peatlands might be higher owing to processes not simulated by the models and direct anthropogenic disturbance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding how future warming might trigger high carbon losses from northern peatlands.
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