Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere-troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.

Automated summary

In recent years, there have been significant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, understanding of stratosphere-troposphere interaction, and extending long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances have led to new and improved capabilities in long-range prediction, aiding monthly, seasonal, annual-to-decadal climate predictions, and multidecadal projections.