The Beaufort Gyre intensification and stabilization: A model-observation synthesis

A model-observation synthesis is conducted to investigate changes in the upper ocean circulation and stratification in the Canada Basin [CB] of the Arctic Ocean. Results show that the Beaufort Gyre [BG] has been generally intensifying during 1992-2015 in conjunction with changes in sea ice and the upper ocean including increasing sea surface height [SSH], sea ice and ocean speed, Ekman transport convergence and downwelling, and freshwater content, decreasing ice thickness and upper ocean salinity, shoaling summer halocline and mixed layer, and deepening winter halocline and mixed layer. Increasing Ekman transport convergence draws more water from surrounding areas into the CB, thus lowering SSH in those areas and raising SSH in the CB. The rate of change in the CB began to decrease in 2008 and the BG circulation appears to be stabilizing, if not relaxing slightly. This is reflected in the general plateauing of SSH, the intensity of the sea ice and ocean circulation, and various measures of the CB thermohaline stratification. The BG intensification and subsequent stabilization appear to have been strongly controlled by atmospheric changes in the CB characterized by generally increasing anticyclonic wind circulation and sea level pressure (SLP) before 2008 and falling wind strength and SLP to below-average levels in some years after 2008. Changes in SLP are highly correlated with changes in ocean surface stress curl and downwelling. Since 2008, the magnitude of the stress curl and downwelling in much of the CB has declined, contributing to BG stabilization. The general leveling-off of sea ice thickness also contributes to the stabilization by limiting melt water input to the CB that increases freshwater content. Temperatures in the Near Surface Temperature Maximum layer trended upward slightly over 1992-2015, which is closely correlated with decreasing sea ice thickness. Upper ocean heat content increased over the study period mainly due to strong temperature increases in the summer Pacific Water layer.