Performance of 2020 Real-Time Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts from High-Resolution Global-Nested Hurricane Models: HAFS-globalnest and GFDL T-SHiELD

The global-nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS-globalnest) is one piece of NOAA's Unified Forecast System (UFS) application for hurricanes. In this study, results are analyzed from 2020 real-time forecasts by HAFS-globalnest and a similar global-nested model, the Tropical Atlantic version of GFDL's System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (T-SHiELD). HAFS-globalnest produced the highest track forecast skill compared to several operational and experimental models, while T-SHiELD showed promising track skills as well. The intensity forecasts from HAFS-globalnest generally had a positive bias at longer lead times primarily due to the lack of ocean coupling, while T-SHiELD had a much smaller intensity bias particularly at longer forecast lead times. With the introduction of a modified planetary boundary layer scheme and an increased number of vertical levels, particularly in the boundary layer, HAFS forecasts of storm size had a smaller positive bias than occurred in the 2019 version of HAFS-globalnest. Despite track forecasts that were comparable to the operational GFS and HWRF, both HAFS-globalnest and T-SHiELD suffered from a persistent right-of-track bias in several cases at the 4-5-day forecast lead times. The reasons for this bias were related to the strength of the subtropical ridge over the western North Atlantic and are continuing to be investigated and diagnosed. A few key case studies from this very active hurricane season, including Hurricanes Laura and Delta, were examined.

Automated summary

This study analyzes the results of the global-nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS-globalnest) and a similar model, T-SHiELD, in real-time forecasts for 2020. HAFS-globalnest outperformed other operational and experimental models in track forecast skill, and T-SHiELD also showed promising track skills. However, HAFS-globalnest had a positive bias in intensity forecasts due to the lack of ocean coupling, while T-SHiELD had a smaller intensity bias. The modified planetary boundary layer scheme and increased vertical levels in HAFS improved storm size forecasts compared to the previous version. Both HAFS-globalnest and T-SHiELD exhibited a persistent right-of-track bias at 4-5-day forecast lead times, which is being further investigated.