Bone Turnover Marker Profiling and Fracture Risk in Older Women: Fracture Risk from Age 75 to 90

Purpose A major challenge in osteoporosis is to identify individuals at high fracture risk. We investigated six bone turnover markers (BTMs) to determine association with specific fracture types; the time-frame for risk prediction and whether these are influenced by age at assessment. Methods Population-based OPRA cohort (n = 1044) was assessed at ages 75, 80, 85 and fractures documented for up to 15 years. Six BTMs were analyzed at each time-point (N-terminal propeptide of type I collagen, PINP; total osteocalcin, OC; bone-specific alkaline phosphatase, BALP; C-terminal telopeptide of type I collagen, CTX; tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase 5b, TRAcP5b; urinary osteocalcin). Hazard ratios (HR) for any, major osteoporotic, vertebral and hip fractures were calculated as short (1, 2, 3 years) and long-term risk (5, 10, 15 years). Results At 75 year, high CTX levels were associated with an increased risk of all fractures, including major osteoporotic fractures, across most time-frames (HRs ranging: 1.28 to 2.28). PINP was not consistently associated. Urinary osteocalcin was consistently associated with elevated short-term risk (HRs ranging: 1.83-2.72). Other BTMs were directionally in accordance, though not all statistically significant. BTMs were not predictive for hip fractures. Association of all BTMs attenuated over time; at 80 year none were associated with an increased fracture risk. Conclusion CTX, urinary OC and TRAcP5b are predictive for fracture in a 1 to 3 year, perspective, whereas in the long-term or above age 80 years, BTMs appear less valuable. Resorption markers, particularly CTX, were more consistently associated with fracture risk than formation markers in the very elderly.

Automated summary

This study found that CTX, urinary OC, and TRAcP5b are predictive for fracture risk within 1 to 3 years, but are less valuable in the long term or in individuals above the age of 80.