期刊
SUSTAINABLE AND RESILIENT INFRASTRUCTURE
卷 7, 期 2, 页码 83-99出版社
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2019.1708179
关键词
Climate change; infrastructure; deep uncertainty; complexity; adaptation
资金
- National Science Foundation [UREx SRN 1444755, GCR 1934933]
- Office of Naval Research [N0001418-1-2393]
As climate change is becoming a major challenge, existing infrastructure design approaches are insufficient in addressing the complexity and uncertainty associated with climate change. Common design methods have not fully realized the potential in dealing with climate change.
As climate change is emerging as a major challenge for man-made systems in the coming century, there has been significant effort to understand how to position infrastructure to adapt and deliver services reliably. Particularly, the climate is changing faster than the expected lifetime of critical infrastructure, resulting in situations well beyond the intended design conditions of a stationary climate. This study assesses how well existing infrastructure design approaches - traditional fail-safe, armoring, low regret, safe-to-fail, and adaptive management - account for climate-related complexity and uncertainty through an application of the Cynefin and Deep Uncertainty Frameworks. The results indicate that existing infrastructure design approaches have varying levels of validity for addressing climate change across spatial and temporal scales. The most common infrastructure design approaches undertake lower levels of complexity and uncertainty than climate change demands, indicating the potential of approaches that address complexity and deep uncertainty have not been fully realized.
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