Time management governs climate resilience and productivity in the coupled rice-wheat cropping systems of eastern India

India will need to produce 30% more wheat by 2050, and these gains must principally come from intensification in eastern India where low productivity is common. Through a dense network of on-farm surveys for the rice-wheat system in this region, we show that contemporary wheat sowing dates have a central influence on achieved and attainable yields, superseding all other crop management, soil and varietal factors. We estimate that untapped wheat production potential will increase by 69% with achievable adjustments to wheat sowing dates without incurring undesirable trade-offs with rice productivity, irrigation requirements or profitability. Our findings also indicate that transformative gains in wheat yields are only possible in eastern India if rice and wheat are managed as a coupled system. Steps taken to 'keep time' through better management of the annual cropping calendar will pay dividends for food security, profitability and climate resilience now and as a foundation for adaptation to progressive climate change. Current cropping calendar management erodes wheat yield potential in the rice-wheat cropping system of eastern India. By combining field and household survey data, time series of remotely sensed information and dynamic crop simulations, this study shows that exploitable wheat yield gaps could increase by 69% through planting date adjustments that enhance climate resilience.

Automated summary

This study shows that adjusting the planting dates of wheat can significantly increase yields in eastern India, but this requires managing rice and wheat as a coupled system. The study also reveals that current cropping calendar management reduces the wheat yield potential in the rice-wheat cropping system of eastern India.