Past and Future Spatial Growth Dynamics of Chihuahua City, Mexico: Pressures for Land Use

In this study, the transitions of land use that occurred in the urban and peripheral areas of Chihuahua City, Mexico, were determined for the period 1989-2014. Landsat TM and OLI scenes, as well as the method of Markov Chains (MC) were used. Grasslands and Shrublands were the land uses that experienced the highest pressures for land use. Grasslands occupied 23.5% of the area in 1989, decreasing to 16.01% in 2014. Likewise, Shrublands were reduced from 54.53% to 48.06%. The areas occupied by Croplands, Oak forest, Water bodies and Riparian vegetation stayed in general constant. In contrast, the urban area increased from 13.6% to 28.6% of the total area studied. In addition, projections of land use for 2019 and 2024 were generated through the method of MC and Cellular Automata (CA). According to the projections, validated with an agreement of 0.90, the Human settlements would continue to expand, occupying 38.57% by 2019 and almost half of the studied territory (47.33%) by 2024. The ecosystems with the highest pressure for land use change will continue to be the Grasslands and Shrublands. By 2024, the former would lose 15.8% while the latter would lose 16.7% of the area. These methods are valuable for urban planning and the results could support growth plans for Chihuahua City, Mexico, with a sustainable approach.