Impacts of climate change and extreme weather on food supply chains cascade across sectors and regions in Australia

Disasters resulting from climate change and extreme weather events adversely impact crop and livestock production. While the direct impacts of these events on productivity are generally well known, the indirect supply-chain repercussions (spillovers) are still unclear. Here, applying an integrated modelling framework that considers economic and physical factors, we estimate spillovers in terms of social impacts (for example, loss of job and income) and health impacts (for example, nutrient availability and diet quality) resulting from disruptions in food supply chains, which cascade across regions and sectors. Our results demonstrate that post-disaster impacts are wide-ranging and diverse owing to the interconnected nature of supply chains. We find that fruit, vegetable and livestock sectors are the most affected, with effects flowing on to other non-food production sectors such as transport services. The ability to cope with disasters is determined by socio-demographic characteristics, with communities in rural areas being most affected. The complex nature of food supply chains makes it a crucial exercise to estimate the impacts of disruptions caused by climate disasters. By applying an integrated modelling framework to Australia and considering heatwaves, cyclones and other climate events, this study presents novel ways of quantifying regional and sectoral spillover effects-including job and income losses, food and nutrient availability, and diet quality.

Automated summary

Disasters resulting from climate change and extreme weather events have negative impacts on crop and livestock production. While the direct impacts are well-known, the indirect supply-chain repercussions are still unclear. This study estimates the social and health impacts of disruptions in food supply chains and finds that the effects are wide-ranging due to the interconnected nature of supply chains.