Permafrost degradation increases risk and large future costs of infrastructure on the Third Pole

The damage to infrastructure caused by near-surface permafrost degradation is directly related to the well-being of 10 million people and the sustainable development on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Third Pole of the Earth. Here we identify the economic damage caused by permafrost degradation to infrastructure on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by integrating data-driven projection, multihazard index, and lifespan replacement model. We found that additional cost of approximately $6.31 billion will be needed to maintain the service function of current infrastructure under the historical scenario (SSP245) by 2090. While 20.9% of these potential costs can be saved with strategic adaptations. Controlling global warming to below 1.5 degrees C will reduce the costs by $1.32 billion relative to the 2 degrees C target of Paris Agreement. These findings highlight the importance of mitigating global warming and of investment in the adaptation and maintenance of infrastructure on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which has a sparse population but is a climate hotspot. Controlling warming to below 1.5 degrees C instead of 2 degrees C could reduce the costs of infrastructure damage from permafrost degradation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by $1.32 billion, according to statistical and machine learning-based model projections

Automated summary

The degradation of permafrost in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau causes significant economic damage to infrastructure, requiring an estimated $6.31 billion to maintain current functionality by 2090. Strategic adaptations can save around 20.9% of these costs, and controlling global warming to below 1.5 degrees C can reduce the costs by $1.32 billion. Mitigating global warming and investing in infrastructure adaptation and maintenance are crucial for the sustainable development of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.