Site-specific temporal variation of population dynamics in subalpine endemic plant species

Endemic plants in high mountains are projected to be at high risk because of climate change. Temporal demographic variation is a major factor affecting population viability because plants often occur in small, isolated populations. Because isolated populations tend to exhibit genetic differentiation, analyzing temporal demographic variation in multiple populations is required for the management of high mountain endemic species. We examined the population dynamics of an endemic plant species, Primula farinosa subsp. modesta, in four subalpine sites over six years. Stage-based transition matrices were constructed, and temporal variation in the projected population growth rate (lambda) was analyzed using life table response experiments (LTREs). The variation in lambda was primarily explained by the site x year interaction rather than the main effects of the site and year. The testing sites exhibited inconsistent patterns in the LTRE contributions of the vital rates to the temporal deviation of lambda. However, within sites, growth or stasis had significant negative correlations with temporal lambda deviation. Negative correlations among the contributions of vital rates were also detected within the two testing sites, and the removal of the correlations alleviated temporal fluctuations in lambda. The response of vital rates to yearly environmental fluctuations reduced the temporal variation of lambda. Such effects manifested especially at two sites where plants exhibited higher plasticity than plants at other sites. Site-specific temporal variation implies that populations of high mountain species likely exhibit asynchronous temporal changes, and multiple sites need to be evaluated for their conservation.

Automated summary

Endemic plants in high mountains are at high risk due to climate change. Temporal demographic variation, genetic differentiation and plasticity all play important roles in the population dynamics of high mountain endemic species. By studying the population dynamics of Primula farinosa subsp. modesta in four subalpine sites, it was found that the interaction between site and year primarily explained the temporal variation in population growth rate. Different sites showed inconsistent patterns in their contributions to the temporal deviation of population growth rate. However, within sites, growth or stasis had significant negative correlations with temporal deviation. Removing the correlations among vital rates alleviated temporal fluctuations in population growth rate.