4.7 Article

Explaining changes in rainfall-runoff relationships during and after Australia's Millennium Drought: a community perspective

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HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
卷 26, 期 23, 页码 6073-6120

出版社

COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
DOI: 10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022

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资金

  1. Australian Research Council (ARC) Linkage Project [LP180100796]
  2. Victorian Department of Land, Environment, Water and Planning (DELWP) and Melbourne Water
  3. ARC [LP170100598]
  4. DELWP
  5. Victorian Environmental Water Holder
  6. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)
  7. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes [CE170100023]
  8. ARC Discovery Early Career Researcher Award [DE200100086, DE210100479]
  9. ARC Discovery Project [DP180101229, DP180102522]
  10. Melbourne Research Scholarship
  11. Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning
  12. Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority [TP 707158]
  13. Australian Research Council [LP180100796, DE210100479] Funding Source: Australian Research Council

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This paper presents and evaluates a range of hypothesised process explanations for the flow response to the Millennium Drought in southeastern Australia. The study identifies the unprecedented duration of the drought and interrelated groundwater processes as the primary climatic drivers, along with increased evaporative demand and harvesting of runoff by small private dams. The findings emphasize the importance of long-term field monitoring and continued investment in understanding hydrological shifts for water planning under climate variability and change.
The Millennium Drought lasted more than a decade and is notable for causing persistent shifts in the relationship between rainfall and runoff in many southeastern Australian catchments. Research to date has successfully characterised where and when shifts occurred and explored relationships with potential drivers, but a convincing physical explanation for observed changes in catchment behaviour is still lacking. Originating from a large multi-disciplinary workshop, this paper presents and evaluates a range of hypothesised process explanations of flow response to the Millennium Drought. The hypotheses consider climatic forcing, vegetation, soil moisture dynamics, groundwater, and anthropogenic influence. The hypotheses are assessed against evidence both temporally (e.g. why was the Millennium Drought different to previous droughts?) and spatially (e.g. why did rainfall-runoff relationships shift in some catchments but not in others?). Thus, the strength of this work is a large-scale assessment of hydrologic changes and potential drivers. Of 24 hypotheses, 3 are considered plausible, 10 are considered inconsistent with evidence, and 11 are in a category in between, whereby they are plausible yet with reservations (e.g. applicable in some catchments but not others). The results point to the unprecedented length of the drought as the primary climatic driver, paired with interrelated groundwater processes, including declines in groundwater storage, altered recharge associated with vadose zone expansion, and reduced connection between subsurface and surface water processes. Other causes include increased evaporative demand and harvesting of runoff by small private dams. Finally, we discuss the need for long-term field monitoring, particularly targeting internal catchment processes and subsurface dynamics. We recommend continued investment in the understanding of hydrological shifts, particularly given their relevance to water planning under climate variability and change.

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