Modeling Urban Expansion in Bangkok Metropolitan Region Using Demographic-Economic Data through Cellular Automata-Markov Chain and Multi-Layer Perceptron-Markov Chain Models

Urban expansion is considered as one of the most important problems in several developing countries. Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) is the urbanized and agglomerated area of Bangkok Metropolis (BM) and its vicinity, which confronts the expansion problem from the center of the city. Landsat images of 1988, 1993, 1998, 2003, 2008, and 2011 were used to detect the land use and land cover (LULC) changes. The demographic and economic data together with corresponding maps were used to determine the driving factors for land conversions. This study applied Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CA-MC) and Multi-Layer Perceptron-Markov Chain (MLP-MC) to model LULC and urban expansions. The performance of the CA-MC and MLP-MC yielded more than 90% overall accuracy to predict the LULC, especially the MLP-MC method. Further, the annual population and economic growth rates were considered to produce the land demand for the LULC in 2014 and 2035 using the statistical extrapolation and system dynamics (SD). It was evident that the simulated map in 2014 resulting from the SD yielded the highest accuracy. Therefore, this study applied the SD method to generate the land demand for simulating LULC in 2035. The outcome showed that urban occupied the land around a half of the BMR.