Dynamics of the African swine fever spread in Poland

Introduction: African swine fever (ASF) is a lethal haemorrhagic disease of Suidae, present in Poland since 2014. The natural reservoir of ASF in Europe is the wild boar (Sus scrofa); however, human activity facilitates long-distance introductions of the disease. In ASF control it is important to identify areas at increased risk of infection. Such identification and estimation of the disease's progress and subsequent spread will help to identify the specific preventive action needs in given zones. Serving this purpose, this study is a spatial and statistical analysis of ASF spread through noted outbreak data. Material and Methods: The spatial-temporal analysis was conducted on the basis of data including the time and location of all ASF outbreaks both in wild boars and domestic pigs in Poland in 2014-2021. Results: The analysis indicates possible routes and directions for further ASF spread in Poland, estimates the annual increase of the affected area (approx. 25,000 km(2) every year since 2017) and marks trends. The strong method-independent correlation between the year and the surface area affected by African swine fever indicated a nearlinear generalised trend. Conclusion: Given the growth trend, we can expect ASF to expand further into new territories of the country; however, it is important to realise that there is still a significant area to protect, because 60% of Poland remains ASF-free.

Automated summary

This study uses spatial and statistical analysis of African swine fever outbreak data to identify possible routes and trends of spread in Poland. The results indicate an annual increase in the affected area and predict further expansion of African swine fever into new territories based on the growth trend.