Tobacco control policies implementation and future lung cancer incidence in Saudi Arabia. A population-based study

Background: Despite the implementation of the monitor tobacco products and prevention package (MPOWER) in Saudi Arabia since 2011, the impact of the policy implantation on smoking prevalence and lung cancer incidence have not been evaluated. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the potential reduction in future lung cancer incidence in Saudi Arabia that could be prevented if the highest level of tobacco control policies MPOWER score were implemented. Methods: Population-based lung cancer incidence data was used to predict lung cancer incidence in Saudi Arabia up to year 2039. We used hypothetical smoking prevalence that would be expected if countries had applied the highest-level implementation of MPOWER tobacco control policies score. We used potential impact fraction on the hypothetical smoking prevalence data to estimate the potentially preventable lung cancer cases taking into account latency periods between changes in smoking prevalence and development of cancer risks. After the hypothesized highest level of MPOWER tobacco policies implementation. Results: the national tobacco smoking prevalence has declined by 55% from 13.17% in 2020 to 5.91% in 2039. If the highest-level MPOWER is implanted, more than half the tobacco smoker rate will be reduced, and a total of 9783 lung cancer cases would be potentially prevented in 2039. Conclusion: Further implementation of effective messages is needed to reduce tobacco-related cancers. By doing so, we can gain valuable insights into the impact of these policies on public health outcomes in the broader context of the region and identify potential areas for further improvement and intervention.

Automated summary

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and lung cancer incidence in Saudi Arabia. The results showed that implementing the highest-level MPOWER tobacco control policies can effectively reduce smoking rates and potentially prevent a significant number of lung cancer cases. Therefore, further efforts are needed to strengthen the implementation of effective messaging to reduce tobacco-related cancers.