期刊
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
卷 6, 期 1, 页码 -出版社
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00502-3
关键词
-
Through simulating an ensemble of global models, we found that the intensity of South Asian monsoon LPS has decreased, while weaker LPS showed no significant trend. In the future, LPS will shift from ocean to land, and precipitation will increase, leading to an increase in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation over central India.
Historical trends in monsoon low pressure systems (LPS), the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, have been difficult to assess due to changes in the observing network. Future projections have also remained uncertain because prior studies concluded that many coarse-resolution climate models do not accurately simulate LPS. Here, we examine changes in South Asian monsoon LPS simulated by an ensemble of global models, including some with high spatial resolution, that we show skillfully represent LPS. In the ensemble mean, the number of strong LPS (monsoon depressions) decreased over the last 65 years (1950-2014) by about 15% while no trend was detected for weaker LPS (monsoon lows). The reduction in depression counts then moderated, yielding no trend in the periods 1980-2050 or 2015-2050. The ensemble mean projects a shift in genesis from ocean to land and an increase in LPS precipitation of at least 7% K-1, which together contribute to a projected increase in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation over central India.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据