期刊
COMPUTATIONAL STATISTICS & DATA ANALYSIS
卷 191, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2023.107885
关键词
Count time series; INGARCH models; Multiplicative error model; Multiplicative operator; Semi-parametric estimation
This study introduces a multiplicative error model (CMEMs) for discrete-valued count time series, which is closely related to the integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (INGARCH) models. It derives the stochastic properties and estimation approaches of different types of INGARCH-CMEMs, and demonstrates their performance and application through simulations and real-world data examples.
Multiplicative error models (MEMs) are commonly used for real-valued time series, but they cannot be applied to discrete-valued count time series as the involved multiplication would not preserve the integer nature of the data. Thus, the concept of a multiplicative operator for counts is proposed (as well as several specific instances thereof), which are then used to develop a kind of MEMs for count time series (CMEMs). If equipped with a linear conditional mean, the resulting CMEMs are closely related to the class of so-called integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (INGARCH) models and might be used as a semi-parametric extension thereof. Important stochastic properties of different types of INGARCH-CMEM as well as relevant estimation approaches are derived, namely types of quasi-maximum likelihood and weighted least squares estimation. The performance and application are demonstrated with simulations as well as with two real-world data examples.
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