Kuwait household water demand in 2050: Spatial microsimulation and impact appraisal

Household water demand has increased dramatically in Kuwait over the last few decades, due to rapid population growth and changing lifestyles. Avoiding a water deficit through a supply-side approach has been the default strategy in Kuwait, yet this approach is unsustainable, associated with declining groundwater levels, and reliance on desalination that results in major carbon emission and environmental impact and that takes a large and growing share of oil revenues. In this study, we forecast household water demand in Kuwait to 2050 under a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario and evaluate the economic and environmental impacts. A spatial microsimulation, constrained by the national population projection of the Kuwait Institute of Scientific Research (KISR), was developed to overcome data limitations in forecasting household demand. Results show a 45% increase in water demand by 2050, to 664.1 million cubic metres (MCM), relative to the 2019 base year. Annual production costs increase from 1.39 billion USD in 2019 to 1.99 billion USD by 2050, whilst carbon emissions increase from 10.85 to 15.54 million tonnes/year. These results should alert policymakers to the potential impacts of the growing water demand and provide further support for water conservation action to reduce demand. A Business-As-Usual (BAU) water demand forecast in the household sector of Kuwait was built to quantify water demand until 2050 and evaluate the associated economic and environmental impacts. The BAU forecast model has shown that demand will increase by 45% to reach 664.1 million cubic meters (MCM). Annual water production will cost 1.99 billion USD, whilst carbon emissions will reach 15.54 tonnes by 2050. This study targets policymakers to show the potential impacts of the growing water demand and provide further support for water conservation action to reduce demand.image

Automated summary

Household water demand in Kuwait has increased significantly in recent decades, leading to negative impacts on water resources and the environment, as well as substantial economic costs. Through a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario forecast, this study predicts a 45% increase in household water demand by 2050 in Kuwait, requiring substantial investments to meet the demand. The findings of this study serve as a warning to policymakers, emphasizing the importance of reducing water demand.