Opium Price Shocks and Prescription Opioids in the USA

We investigate the effect of international opium price shocks on the per capita dispensation of prescription opioids in the USA. Using quarterly county-level data for 2002q4-2016q4, three main results emerge. First, reductions in opium prices significantly increase the quantity of opioids prescribed, and more so in counties with a larger pre-existing market for pain relief, as captured by the incidence of mining sites. Second, the increase involves only natural and semi-synthetic, but not fully-synthetic, opioids, suggesting that the effect is moderated by the amount of raw material contained in the products. The impact is larger prior to 2010, when overdose deaths were more related to the use of legally prescribed opioids. Third, advertising expenses, stock prices and the profits of opioid producers increase following negative opium price shocks, suggesting an important role of supply-side economic incentives.

Automated summary

This study examines the impact of international opium price shocks on the per capita dispensation of prescription opioids in the USA. The results show that reductions in opium prices lead to a significant increase in the quantity of opioids prescribed, especially in counties with a higher demand for pain relief. This effect is mainly observed for natural and semi-synthetic opioids and is moderated by the amount of raw material contained in the products. Additionally, negative opium price shocks result in higher advertising expenses, stock prices, and profits for opioid producers, indicating the important role of supply-side economic incentives.