Woman, Life, Freedom, One Year Later: Will the Iran Protests Succeed?

This essay argues that the recent protests in Iran, ostensibly driven by the Woman, Life, Freedom movement, are a symbol of a far greater dissatisfaction with arbitrary rule, corruption, and incompetence. While compulsory veiling was the immediate cause, the main drivers are the ailing economy and the decline in public services. Given the depth and breadth of street protests and the ongoing civil disobedience, the Islamic Republic simply cannot return to business as usual. At the same time, the regime is incapable of reinventing itself. It faces political and socioeconomic constraints and a mix of demographic and environmental challenges, among others. As for whether outside pressure can help protesters, the West must balance its championing of the movement with its pursuit of diplomatic engagement on Iran's nuclear program. And Iran is now getting more international assistance by looking eastward to China and Russia. With the government and security forces willing to use violence against protesters, civil disobedience may be the only method to systematically challenge the ruling order.

Automated summary

This essay argues that the recent protests in Iran, initially triggered by compulsory veiling, are rooted in a broader dissatisfaction with dictatorship, corruption, and incompetence. Economic decline and deteriorating public services fuel the discontent. The Islamic Republic cannot return to normalcy, lacking the ability to reinvent itself due to political and socioeconomic constraints, as well as demographic and environmental challenges. External pressure might assist the protesters, but striking a balance between supporting the movement and engaging diplomatically with Iran's nuclear program is essential. Meanwhile, Iran seeks international assistance by turning to China and Russia. Given the government and security forces' willingness to use violence against protesters, civil disobedience appears to be the only means to systematically challenge the ruling order.