期刊
COASTAL ENGINEERING
卷 96, 期 -, 页码 92-99出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.11.009
关键词
Coastal hazard; Probabilistic modelling; Development setback; Economic modelling
资金
- Australian Government Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency's Climate Change Adaptation Research Grants program
Traditional methods for assessing coastal hazards have not typically incorporated a rigorous treatment of uncertainty. Such treatment is necessary to enable risk assessments which are now required by emerging risk based coastal zone management/planning frameworks. While unresolved issues remain, relating to the availability of sufficient data for comprehensive uncertainty assessments, this will hopefully improve in coming decades. Here, we present a modelling framework which integrates geological, engineering and economic approaches for assessing the climate change driven economic risk to coastal developments. The framework incorporates means for combining results from models that focus on the decadal to century time scales at which coasts evolve, and those that focus on the short term and seasonal time scales (storm bite and recovery). This paper demonstrates the functionality of the framework in deriving probabilistic coastal hazard lines and their subsequent use to establish an economically optimal setback line for development at a case study site; the Narrabeen-Collaroy embayment in Sydney, New South Wales. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据