Enhanced Subseasonal Variability of Spring Temperature Over Eastern China in 2022: Initial Role of Extremely Heavy Arctic Sea Ice in Previous Winter

In spring 2022, strong temperature whiplash events occurred in eastern China (EC), characterized by enhanced subseasonal variability in surface air temperature (SAT). Our results show that extreme temperature fluctuations are dominated by the amplified Eurasian wave train on a biweekly timescale as a possible response to increased sea ice concentrations (SICs) over the Barents-Kara Seas (BK) in previous winter. Increased winter SICs weaken the upward planetary waves and enhance the stratospheric polar vortex. In spring, the downward propagation of enhanced polar vortex intensifies the polar front jet, increasing kinetic energy gain of the North Atlantic wave train and guiding it to travel farther eastward. The Eurasian wave train strengthens through an upstream development and enhanced local baroclinicity and enhances subseasonal SAT variability over EC. Therefore, the state of BK SICs in previous winter could be a useful signal for the enhanced likelihood of spring extreme temperature whiplash events. In spring 2022, extremely cold and warm spells alternately affected eastern China (EC) and caused drastic temperature whiplash events, featured by the enhanced subseasonal variability of surface air temperature (SAT). We find the subseasonal SAT variability is directly associated with the Eurasian wave train, and its intensity is correlated with sea ice concentrations (SICs) over the Barents-Kara Seas (BK) in previous winter. Increased SICs reduce the heat transfer from ocean to atmosphere, induce a cyclone anomaly aloft, and diminish the climatological planetary wavenumber-1 component. The weakened upward wave activity flux strengthens the stratospheric polar vortex, which spreads downward until spring. Hence, the polar front jet in the North Atlantic is enhanced, and the meridional temperature gradient in northern Europe increases, providing a favorable background for atmospheric disturbance development. The North Atlantic wave train propagates farther eastward after gaining more kinetic energy from the accelerated jet and intensifies the following Eurasian wave train. Due to stronger local baroclinic energy conversion, the Eurasian wave train further strengthens, resulting in enhanced subseasonal SAT variability over EC. Therefore, the extremely increased winter BK SICs could be a useful initial signal for the probability of temperature whiplash events over EC in the following spring. Record-breaking subseasonal variability of surface air temperature (SAT) prevails in eastern China in spring 2022Sea ice concentrations over the Barents-Kara Seas in previous winter strengthen mean state of North Atlantic circulation via the delayed role of the stratosphereThe upstream interaction between mean state and eddies reinforces the Eurasian wave train and enhances subseasonal SAT variability

Automated summary

In spring 2022, extreme temperature fluctuations occurred in eastern China, which were primarily attributed to the amplified Eurasian wave train, with its intensity correlated to sea ice concentrations over the Barents-Kara Seas in the previous winter.