Stock market volatility and economic policy uncertainty: New insight into a dynamic threshold mixed-frequency model

This study re-examines the relationship between U.S. stock market volatility and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) using the mixed-frequency dynamic threshold model. The empirical results exhibit several findings. The EPU has a threshold effect that is time-varying. Moreover, combining the dynamic threshold with the Markov-regime Mix-frequency model (MS-MIDAS), we find that this new model can significantly improve the predictive performance in a statistical view compared to other competing models (including the benchmark model). Our findings can provide new insight into volatility forecasting.

Automated summary

This study re-examines the relationship between U.S. stock market volatility and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) using the mixed-frequency dynamic threshold model. The empirical results show that EPU has a time-varying threshold effect. Moreover, combining the dynamic threshold with the Markov-regime Mix-frequency model (MS-MIDAS), this study finds that the new model can significantly improve predictive performance compared to other competing models.