How do the characteristics of local officials affect land urbanization bubble? A case study of Hangzhou, China

Local officials' characteristics play an important role in the development of urban sprawl, which could lead to the land urbanization bubble (LUB). OLS regression model was selected to analysis the relationship between officials' characteristics and LUB. The study finds that: (1) locally promoted officials have significant negative influence on the generation of LUB; (2) the influences of officials tenure and age characteristics on LUB significantly differ showing an inverted-U shape change; and (3)compared with male officials, female officials show more aggressive in generating LUB; and (4) the better economic development the less effective of official characteristics on land urbanization. Thus, the research proposes that (1) the assessment system for local officials must be improved to highlight the responsibilities and accountabilities of officials in sustainable urban development; (2) the influence of official personal characteristics on local administration must be considered at the time of training and promoting local officials; and (3) the formation of local administrative team should not over-emphasize age and gender, because under the effects of cadre tournament, young and/or female district leaders are more likely to seek promotion in short period of time at cost of sustainable and healthy urban development.

Automated summary

The characteristics of local officials play a significant role in the development of urban sprawl and the generation of land urbanization bubble (LUB). A study using an OLS regression model reveals that locally promoted officials have a negative impact on LUB, the influence of officials' tenure and age characteristics on LUB follows an inverted-U shape, female officials are more aggressive in generating LUB compared to male officials, and the effectiveness of official characteristics on land urbanization decreases with better economic development. The research proposes the improvement of the assessment system for local officials, considering officials' personal characteristics in local administration training and promotion, and avoiding over-emphasizing age and gender in the formation of local administrative teams.