Abnormal Disclosure Tone in MD&A and Analysts' Earnings Forecast: Evidence from China

This study examines the association between abnormal disclosure tone in the Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) section of annual reports and analysts' forecasting behavior. Using analysts' forecast data of Chinese listed firms from 2008 to 2020, we find that analysts can discern abnormal tone in managers' disclosures, leading to a downward revision of earnings estimates and an enhancement of forecast accuracy. Moreover, we observe that abnormal tone in the MD&A section attracts analysts' attention as they navigate the challenges posed by tone management and diminished information transparency. Collectively, this paper enhances our understanding of analysts' forecasting behavior concerning the extent of tone management observed in MD&A disclosures within emerging markets.

Automated summary

This study finds that abnormal disclosure tone in the MD&A section of annual reports of Chinese listed firms affects analysts' forecasting behavior. Analysts are able to discern abnormal tone and accordingly adjust earnings estimates and improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, abnormal tone also attracts analysts' attention, especially in the presence of tone management and diminished information transparency.