The emergence and successful elimination of SARS-CoV-2 dominant strains with increasing epidemic potential in Taiwan's 2021 outbreak

Taiwan's experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in 2003 guided its development of strategies to defend against SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, which enabled the successful control of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases from 2020 through March 2021. However, in late-April 2021, the imported Alpha variant began to cause COVID-19 outbreaks at an exceptional rate in Taiwan. In this study, we aimed to determine what epidemiological con-ditions enabled the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant strains to become dominant and decline later during a surge in the outbreak. In conjunction with contact-tracing investigations, we used our bioinformatics software, CoVConvert and IniCoV, to analyze whole-genome sequences of 101 Taiwan Alpha strains. Univariate and multivariable regression analyses revealed the epidemiological factors associated with viral dominance. Univariate analysis showed the dominant Alpha strains were preferentially selected in the surge's epicenter (p = 0.0024) through intensive human-to-human contact and maintained their dominance for 1.5 months until the Zero-COVID Policy was implemented. Multivariable regression found that the epidemic periods (p = 0.007) and epicenter (p = 0.001) were two significant factors associated with the dominant virus strains spread in the community. These dominant virus strains emerged at the outbreak's epicenter with frequent human-to-human contact and low vaccination coverage. The Level 3 Restrictions and Zero-COVID policy successfully controlled the outbreak in the community without city lock downs. Our integrated method can identify the epidemiological conditions for emerging dominant virus with increasing epidemiological potential and support decision makers in rapidly containing outbreaks using public health measures that target fast-spreading virus strains.

Automated summary

Taiwan's experience with SARS-CoV guided its strategies to combat SARS-CoV-2, but the imported Alpha variant caused a surge in COVID-19 cases. The study found that the dominant Alpha strains were associated with the outbreak's epicenter and high human-to-human contact, as well as low vaccination coverage. The Level 3 Restrictions and Zero-COVID policy effectively controlled the outbreak without city lock downs.