Resilience of the higher education sector to future climates: A systematic review of predicted building energy performance and modelling approaches

A continued upward trend in global greenhouse gas emissions is estimated to see average temperatures rise by 2.7 degrees C before 2100. This warming effect presents risks to global infrastructure and built assets that should be identified to minimise negative consequences on inhabitants. For higher education estates, a key challenge is to maintain high indoor environmental quality standards whilst mitigating increased cooling loads under future climates. Findings from this meta-analysis suggest that existing passive cooling mechanisms may be insufficient to tolerate predicted increases in summertime temperatures, even in cooler UK climates. Across typologies, peak electricity demand for mechanically cooled higher education buildings was estimated to increase the most for halls of residences (4-27 %) and the least for laboratory buildings (0-5%) by 2080. Under a high emission scenario, the increase in total annual energy consumption by 2050 varies widely across studies (+5-33 %), although almost all cases predict a greater increase in cooling energy consumption than decrease in heating energy consumption. Probabilistic climate projections are the predominant source of uncertainty for predictions of energy demand, with the difference between low and high emission scenarios contributing to 34-44 % of variability in predicted annual cooling energy consumption in 2050. Further research is warranted to identify the most likely indicators of future building performance across a range of university building typologies. This work provides recommendations on expanding the evidence basis through development of standardised climate change impact assessments.

Automated summary

A continued upward trend in global greenhouse gas emissions poses risks to global infrastructure and built assets. Maintaining high indoor environmental quality standards is a challenge for higher education institutions under future climates. Passive cooling mechanisms may be insufficient to tolerate predicted temperature increases. Different building typologies have varying energy demand projections.