A dynamic Bayesian network based reliability assessment method for short-term multi-round situation awareness considering round dependencies

During abnormal situations, the perception, comprehension, and projection of elements related to abnormality, i. e., situation awareness (SA), is one of the critical factors to guarantee system safety, and dynamically achieved in short-term multi-round interactions. The short-term multi-round SA (STMR-SA) experiences round dependencies due to anchoring effect (AE) and confirmation bias (CB). For SA in current round, AE biases judgement of system states towards previous cognition, and CB leads to neglect of information disproving previous opinion. Therefore, AE and CB mutually promote and impede the correction of STMR-SA errors. The effects of AE and CB on STMRSA have been verified in qualitative research but disregarded in quantitative STMR-SA reliability assessments. This paper aims to propose a novel STMR-SA reliability assessment method considering AE-caused and CB-caused round dependencies. First, a round dependency model (RDM) is developed to quantify above-mentioned round dependencies. Subsequently, STMR-SA evolution is modeled with dynamic Bayesian network, where round dependencies are represented by connections between adjacent time slices and quantified by RDM. Case study on Boeing 737-8 (MAX) accident demonstrates the effectiveness of this method. Results indicates that improvement measures including adding angle of attack (AOA) disagree warning and training enhancement, could improve the STMR-SA reliability and system safety.

Automated summary

During abnormal situations, situation awareness (SA) plays a critical role in ensuring system safety. This study focuses on short-term multi-round SA (STMR-SA) and examines the impact of anchoring effect (AE) and confirmation bias (CB) on STMR-SA errors. A novel reliability assessment method is proposed, considering the round dependencies caused by AE and CB. The method is demonstrated through a case study on the Boeing 737-8 (MAX) accident, showing that improvement measures can enhance STMR-SA reliability and system safety.