Unprecedented Human-Perceived Heat Stress in 2021 Summer Over Western North America: Increasing Intensity and Frequency in a Warming Climate

The unprecedented 2021 June-July heatwave in Western North America resulted in record-breaking human-perceived heat stress across the region, measured by the humidex considering both air temperature and humidity. During extended summer (June-September), both 95th percentiles of daily maximum humidex (HX95) and air temperature (TX95) have increased over the 1940-2022 period, with even faster intensification in the last two decades (2001-2022). HX95 has increased more than TX95 because of the positive monotonic nonlinear relationship between humidex and air temperature at a given level of relative humidity. The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) projects a larger increase in human-perceived heat stress than air temperature across the region under low to high emission scenarios (HX95 increases 4.40-7.04 degrees C and TX95 increases 2.92-4.65 degrees C between 1981-2010 and 2041-2060). Moreover, CanESM5 projects significant increases in the frequency of HX and TX conditions that exceed the levels reached in 2021 under intermediate and high emission scenarios. Using humidex, a measure that combines air temperature and humidity, we assessed the human-perceived heat stress during the record-breaking 2021 summer heatwave in Western North America. The 2021 heatwave broke records for both air temperature and humidex, and these two measures have been increasing in the past decades. The heatwave was drier than usual due to high pressure in the atmosphere, clear skies, and more heat warming up the air instead of evaporating water. Humidex will rise more than air temperature under various emission scenarios, making people feel even hotter in the region. The climate model used suggests that humidex values and temperatures that exceed the levels observed in 2021 will happen much more often and be much more intense across the region in the future, with estimates of three to ten times for humidex and two to seven times for air temperature more frequent under intermediate to high emission scenarios by the end of the century. However, the likelihood of extreme humidex in dry conditions, as observed in 2021, will remain low, like historical levels. Unprecedented 2021 heatwave in Western North America resulted in record-breaking human-perceived heat stress, considering both air temperature and humidityExtreme human-perceived heat stress increased at a faster rate than extreme air temperature, both showing rapid increases in recent decadesFor events exceeding 2021 level, a larger future increase in extreme human-perceived heat stress is projected compared to air temperature

Automated summary

The unprecedented 2021 heatwave in Western North America resulted in record-breaking human-perceived heat stress, with extreme heat stress increasing at a faster rate than extreme air temperature, both showing rapid increases in recent decades. In the future, a larger increase in extreme human-perceived heat stress is projected compared to air temperature, especially for events exceeding the levels observed in 2021.