Contagion effects of external monetary shocks on systemic financial risk in China: Evidence from the Euro area and Japan

This study aims to explore the impact of foreign monetary policy changes on systemic financial risk in China based on the cross-country contagion characteristics of monetary policy risk and market interactivity. We find that differences in the spillover effects of external monetary policy risks and the contagion paths of financial risks through different channels have significant timevarying characteristics. Moreover, individual markets show divergent effects in response to external monetary policy shocks, and asymmetric spillover effects exist across markets. Among them, asset price markets carry the main financial risk input pressure, whereas financial institutions and foreign exchange markets are the main senders of systemic risk to other markets. Notably, the cross-border contagion effect of risk from the interest rate hike policy in the Euro area has shown differences compared to the accommodative unconventional monetary policy.

Automated summary

This study explores the impact of foreign monetary policy changes on systemic financial risk in China and finds significant time-varying characteristics in the contagion paths of financial risks and the spillover effects of external monetary policy risks through different channels. Asset price markets contribute the most to financial risk input pressure, while financial institutions and foreign exchange markets are the main senders of systemic risk.