4.8 Review

Prediction and projection of heatwaves

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Summary: Successful subseasonal weather forecasts can help society prepare and mitigate the impacts of extreme events. This study investigates the predictability of heatwaves in the European region using the forecasting system of ECMWF. The intensity of heatwaves is found to be the most predictable characteristic, with some regions showing higher predictability in terms of onset and duration.

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Interactive influence of ENSO and IOD on contiguous heatwaves in Australia

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Summary: Australian heatwaves have a significant impact on society. A study on the spatial characteristics of contiguous heatwaves in Australia revealed that extremely large heatwaves are covering larger areas and lasting longer in recent years compared to the past. The study also found that the interaction between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole influences the magnitude and duration of heatwaves in Australia.

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Summary: The year 2020 witnessed a catastrophic fire season in the Pantanal, characterized by severe drought and heatwaves. Land-atmosphere feedbacks played a crucial role in the simultaneous occurrence of drought and heatwaves, exacerbating the risk of fire outbreaks. These findings have implications for understanding and predicting similar extreme events.

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Summary: This study critically assesses the advent and development of heat-health action plans (HHAPs) and highlights the variations in implementation of core elements in long-term urban planning, real-time surveillance, and evaluation. The study emphasizes the urgent need to address spatial heat vulnerability and build urban heat resilience into implementable action plans.

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Soil drought can mitigate deadly heat stress thanks to a reduction of air humidity

Hendrik Wouters et al.

Summary: Global warming has led to an increase in the number and severity of deadly heatwaves. Recent heatwaves have been accompanied by soil droughts that intensify air temperature but decrease air humidity. Despite the increase in temperature, soil droughts actually result in a mild reduction in the lethality of heatwaves.

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Seasonal prediction of European summer heatwaves

Chloe Prodhomme et al.

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Advances in the Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Events Relevant Case Studies across the Globe

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The heat wave of October 2020 in central South America

Jose A. Marengo et al.

Summary: The study highlights the increasing trend in heat wave frequency, intensity, and duration in central South America since the 1980s. Based on data from September to November 2020, an intense heat wave resulted in record-breaking high temperatures in several locations in central South America, with temperatures rising about 10 degrees Celsius above normal and exacerbating severe drought and wildfires.

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Future Changes in African Heatwaves and Their Drivers at the Convective Scale

C. E. Birch et al.

Summary: This study assesses the future change in dry and humid heatwaves in Africa using climate model simulations. The convective-scale simulation outperforms the parameterized simulation in representing humid heatwaves. Both simulations predict significant increases in the intensity, duration, and frequency of heatwaves by 2100. Dry heatwaves are associated with low rainfall and increased surface heating, while humid heatwaves are mainly controlled by increased humidity, rainfall, and evaporation. The convective-scale model shows a higher future change in humid heatwaves compared to the parameterized model.

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The role of atmospheric dynamics and large-scale topography in driving heatwaves

Bernat Jimenez-Esteve et al.

Summary: This study investigates the dynamical processes involved in the life cycle of heatwaves occurring at different latitudes. The results show that blocking and Rossby-wave packets play important roles in midlatitude heatwaves, while topography along the midlatitude jet has a significant impact on the heatwave distribution around the planet. Identifying the key processes driving heatwaves can improve the prediction and representation of extreme events.

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Influence of trends on subseasonal temperature prediction skill

C. Ole Wulff et al.

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Different mechanisms for daytime, nighttime, and compound heatwaves in southern China

Ming Luo et al.

Summary: Heatwaves bring immense stress to human society and the environment. Daytime heatwaves have clear skies and reduced cloud cover and moisture, while nighttime heatwaves are characterized by cloudier and moister conditions. Compound heatwaves combine the characteristics of both daytime and nighttime heatwaves.

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Evaluations of heat action plans for reducing the health impacts of extreme heat: methodological developments (2012-2021) and remaining challenges

Ian J. Dwyer et al.

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Sixfold Increase in Historical Northern Hemisphere Concurrent Large Heatwaves Driven by Warming and Changing Atmospheric Circulations

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The 2020 Siberian heat wave

James E. Overland et al.

Summary: In 2020, Siberia experienced an extreme heat wave with anomalies in monthly temperatures, largely due to the stratospheric polar vortex and tropospheric jet stream. The Arctic Oscillation set extreme positive records, contributing to the persistent heat wave. High tropospheric geopotential heights over Asia influenced temperatures in May and June.

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Summary: The study reveals that under different socioeconomic scenarios, intensity and frequency of extreme temperature and precipitation events over land are projected to increase. The intensity of the hottest days in extratropical regions is projected to increase more than in the tropics, while the frequency of extremely hot days is projected to increase more in tropical regions.

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Nicholas J. Leach et al.

Summary: The field of extreme weather event attribution has rapidly expanded over the past decade, but concerns remain over the deficiencies in climate model representation of key dynamical drivers. The unconditioned risk-based approach to event attribution has been criticized for potentially leading to false negative results. The storyline attribution framework aims to address these concerns by examining the impact of climate change on individual drivers of extreme events.

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Kiswendsida H. Guigma et al.

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Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence

Andrew Ciavarella et al.

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Severity of drought and heatwave crop losses tripled over the last five decades in Europe

Teresa Armada Bras et al.

Summary: The study shows that historical extreme weather disasters in Europe, such as droughts and heatwaves, have led to reduced cereal yields. Floods have a marginal impact on crop production. Over the past 50 years, the severity of heatwaves and droughts on European crop production has roughly tripled.

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David D. Breshears et al.

Summary: With climate change, heat waves are becoming more frequent, intense, and widespread. The impacts of heat waves on plants are often underestimated and understudied, leading to sublethal and lethal effects at leaf and plant scales. Further research and attention are needed to understand the full extent of these impacts on plant ecosystems.

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F. Ragone et al.

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A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera et al.

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N. Freychet et al.

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