High energy and fertilizer prices are more damaging than food export curtailment from Ukraine and Russia for food prices, health and the environment

Higher food prices arising from restrictions on exports from Russia or Ukraine have been exacerbated by energy price rises, leading to higher costs for agricultural inputs such as fertilizer. Here, using a scenario modelling approach, we quantify the potential outcomes of increasing agricultural input costs and the curtailment of exports from Russia and Ukraine on human health and the environment. We show that, combined, agricultural inputs costs and food export restrictions could increase food costs by 60-100% in 2023 from 2021 levels, potentially leading to undernourishment of 61-107 million people in 2023 and annual additional deaths of 416,000 to 1.01 million people if the associated dietary patterns are maintained. Furthermore, reduced land use intensification arising from higher input costs would lead to agricultural land expansion and associated carbon and biodiversity loss. The impact of agricultural input costs on food prices is larger than that from curtailment of Russian and Ukrainian exports. Restoring food trade from Ukraine and Russia alone is therefore insufficient to avoid food insecurity problem from higher energy and fertilizer prices. We contend that the immediacy of the food export problems associated with the war diverted attention away from the principal causes of current global food insecurity.

Automated summary

Higher food prices due to export restrictions from Russia and Ukraine, coupled with rising energy prices, have led to increased costs for agricultural inputs like fertilizer. We used scenario modelling to assess the potential impact of these cost increases and export restrictions on human health and the environment. Our findings indicate that a combination of higher input costs and food export restrictions could lead to a 60-100% increase in food costs by 2023, potentially resulting in undernourishment for 61-107 million people and an additional 416,000 to 1.01 million deaths per year if dietary patterns remain unchanged. Additionally, higher input costs may lead to reduced land use intensification, expansion of agricultural land, and subsequent carbon and biodiversity loss. The impact of input costs on food prices is greater than that of Russian and Ukrainian export restrictions. Simply restoring food trade from these countries alone is insufficient to address the food insecurity issue caused by higher energy and fertilizer prices. We argue that the immediate focus on the food export problems due to the war has diverted attention from the underlying causes of global food insecurity.