Technology innovations impact on carbon emission in Chinese cities: exploring the mediating role of economic growth and industrial structure transformation

China seems ambitious to achieve a carbon emissions peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. To deal with this emissions mitigation plan, technology innovations are regarded as a crucial factor. However, considering its rebound effect (CO2 emissions driving effect) through economic growth, technology innovations might not prove a promising contributor to CO2 reduction. Therefore, there is a need to investigate further the nexus between technology innovations and CO2 emissions for conclusive debate. Based on the data of 215 cities in China, this paper uses mediating effects model to investigate the direct and indirect impacts (through economic growth and industrial structure transformation) of technology innovations on CO2 emissions from a microeconomic perspective. The main results suggest that technology innovations generally increase CO2 emissions in China both directly and indirectly. The impact of technology innovations and economic growth on CO2 emissions indicated the EKC characteristics. Furthermore, the contributions of technology innovations to CO2 emissions are distinguished in different regions. Thus, there is an urgent need for China to promote innovations in clean technology and to transform industrial structure to the tertiary industry to achieve the targets of carbon neutrality and emissions peaking.

Automated summary

China aims to achieve carbon emissions peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. Technology innovations are seen as crucial, but their impact on CO2 reduction may be limited due to rebound effects through economic growth. Further investigation is needed to understand the nexus between technology innovations and CO2 emissions.