Urbanization and CO2 emissions in Belt and Road Initiative economies: analyzing the mitigating effect of human capital in Asian countries

Balanced and sustainable development is one of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) objectives. Therefore, considering the role of urbanization and human capital as critical elements for sustainable development, we analyzed the moderating effect of human capital on the relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions in Asian member countries of the Belt and Road Initiative. In doing so, we used the STIRPAT framework and the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. We also employed the pooled OLS estimator with the Driscoll-Kraay's robust standard errors, the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS), and the two-stage least square (2SLS) estimators in the case of 30 BRI countries for the period 1980-2019. The relationship between urbanization, human capital, and carbon dioxide emissions were examined first by showing a positive correlation between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions. Secondly, we showed that human capital mitigated the positive effect of urbanization on CO2 emissions. Next, we demonstrated that human capital had an inverted U-shaped effect on CO2 emissions. Specifically, a 1% increase in urbanization rose CO2 emissions by 0.756%, 0.943%, and 0.592% following the Driscoll-Kraay's OLS, the FGLS, and the 2SLS estimators, respectively. A 1% increase in the combination of human capital and urbanization reduced CO2 by 0.751%, 0.834%, and 0.682%, respectively. Finally, a 1% increase in the square of human capital decreased CO2 emissions by 1.061%, 1.045%, and 0.878%, respectively. Accordingly, we provide policy implications on the conditional influence of human capital in the urbanization-CO2 emission nexus for sustainable development in these countries.

Automated summary

This study analyzes the moderating effect of human capital on the relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions in Asian member countries of the Belt and Road Initiative. The results show that there is a positive correlation between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions, but human capital can mitigate the positive effect of urbanization on CO2 emissions and has an inverted U-shaped effect on CO2 emissions. Therefore, the conditional influence of human capital in the urbanization-CO2 emission nexus has policy implications for sustainable development.