National CO2 budgets (2015-2020) inferred from atmospheric CO2 observations in support of the global stocktake

Accurate accounting of emissions and removals of CO2 is critical for the planning and verification of emission reduction targets in support of the Paris Agreement. Here, we present a pilot dataset of country-specific net carbon exchange (NCE; fossil plus terrestrial ecosystem fluxes) and terrestrial carbon stock changes aimed at informing countries' carbon budgets. These estimates are based on top-down NCE outputs from the v10 Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) modeling intercomparison project (MIP), wherein an ensemble of inverse modeling groups conducted standardized experiments assimilating OCO-2 column-averaged dry-air mole fraction (X-CO2) retrievals (ACOS v10), in situ CO2 measurements or combinations of these data. The v10 OCO-2 MIP NCE estimates are combined with bottom-up estimates of fossil fuel emissions and lateral carbon fluxes to estimate changes in terrestrial carbon stocks, which are impacted by anthropogenic and natural drivers. These flux and stock change estimates are reported annually (2015-2020) as both a global 1 degrees x 1 degrees gridded dataset and a country-level dataset and are available for download from the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites' (CEOS) website: https://doi.org/10.48588/npf6-sw92 (Byrne et al., 2022). Across the v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments, we obtain increases in the ensemble median terrestrial carbon stocks of 3.29-4.58 Pg CO2 yr(-1) (0.90-1.25 Pg C yr(-1)). This is a result of broad increases in terrestrial carbon stocks across the northern extra tropics, while the tropics generally have stock losses but with considerable regional variability and differences between v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments. We discuss the state of the science for tracking emissions and removals using top-down methods, including current limitations and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems. (c) 2023. California Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship acknowledged.

Automated summary

Accurate accounting of CO2 emissions and removals is crucial for emission reduction targets, and this study provides a pilot dataset of net carbon exchange and terrestrial carbon stock changes for different countries to inform carbon budgets. The estimates are based on top-down modeling outputs using OCO-2 data, combined with bottom-up estimates of fossil fuel emissions and lateral carbon fluxes. Increases in terrestrial carbon stocks are observed, particularly in the northern extra tropics, while the tropics show variable stock losses. The study discusses the current state and future developments of top-down monitoring and verification systems for tracking emissions and removals.