Development of an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework forassessing the impacts of shelter location arrangement and human behaviors onflood evacuation processes

In many flood-prone areas, it is essential for emergency responders to use advanced computer models to assess flood risk and develop informed flood evacuation plans. However, previous studies have had a limited understanding of how evacuation performance is affected by the arrangement of evacuation shelters (with respect to their number and geographical distribution) and human behaviors (with respect to the heterogeneity of household evacuation preparation times and route-searching strategies). In this study, we develop an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework that couples (1) a hydrodynamic model for flood simulation, (2) an agent-based model for evacuation management policies and human behaviors, and (3) a transportation model for simulating household evacuation processes in a road network. We apply the model to the Xiong'an New Area and examine household evacuation outcomes for various shelter location plans and human behavior scenarios. The results show that household evacuation processes are significantly affected by the number and geographical distribution of evacuation shelters. Surprisingly, we find that establishing more shelters may not improve evacuation results if the shelters are not strategically located. We also find that low heterogeneity in evacuation preparation times can result in heavy traffic congestion and long evacuation clearance times. If each household selects their own shortest route without considering the effects of other evacuees' route choices, traffic congestion will likely occur, thereby reducing system-level evacuation performance. These results demonstrate the unique functionality of our model with respect to supporting flood risk assessment and advancing our understanding of how multiple management and behavioral factors jointly affect evacuation performance.

Automated summary

In flood-prone areas, using advanced computer models to assess flood risk and develop informed evacuation plans is crucial for emergency responders. This study developed an integrated socio-hydrological modeling framework to examine the impact of evacuation shelter arrangement and human behaviors on household evacuation outcomes. The results demonstrate that the number and geographical distribution of shelters significantly affect the evacuation process, and strategic placement of shelters is more important than their quantity. Additionally, low heterogeneity in evacuation preparation times and individual route choices can lead to traffic congestion and reduce system-level evacuation performance.