The sea level simulator v1.0: a model for integration of mean sea level change and sea level extremes into a joint probabilistic framework

A statistical model called the sea level simulator v1.0 is introduced. The model integrates mean sea level change and sea level extremes into a joint probabilistic framework that is useful for coastal spatial planning. Given a user-defined planning period, the model can estimate the flood risk as a function of height above the current mean sea level. These flood risk estimates are derived through Monte Carlo simulations of a very large number of planning periods. The derived flood risk is contingent on user-assigned probabilities for future greenhouse gas emission pathways, and the model is thus also useful for quantifying the dependence of flood risk on such pathways and their probabilities. Moreover, the simulator can quantify whether flood risk is dominated by sea level extremes or mean sea level rise and how this depends on the length of the planning period. The code, written in MATLAB, is parallelized and lightweight enough that it can be run on an ordinary PC. The code is easily adaptable to include new locations, new mean sea level projections and similar model developments. The flood risk estimates derived from the simulator are well suited to tackle adaptation and decision problems. Applications for construction of coastal protection and land development in coastal areas have been demonstrated in the past. The paper gives an in-depth technical description of the model. Example simulations from a Swedish nuclear site are also given, and the capabilities of the simulator are discussed. The main aim of the paper is to work as a technical reference for the first public release of the sea level simulator.

Automated summary

This paper introduces a statistical model called the sea level simulator v1.0 which incorporates mean sea level change and sea level extremes into a joint probabilistic framework. The model estimates flood risk as a function of height above the current mean sea level through Monte Carlo simulations. The simulator is lightweight and adaptable, and its flood risk estimates are well suited for adaptation and decision problems.