Modelling electricity demand in Karachi: historical trends, determinants, and future scenarios

Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all is one of the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations General Assembly (SDG 7). Achieving this goal requires both insights into the drivers of present energy demand and foresight into how it will evolve in the future. This information on the demand side is also vital in planning a supply system that relies on affordable, reliable and sustainable energy as much as possible. Unfortunately, in most low- and medium-income countries, data availability on both demand and supply sides remains extremely limited, which complicates downstream operation. In this paper, we analyze overall electricity demand in Karachi, the largest city in Pakistan and one of the largest in the world. The city, with its cooling-dominated climate, experiences large and rapidly growing electricity demand during the summer period. We also discuss how climate change, socioeconomic factors, and distributed generation through renewable energy have influenced the demand historically, and provide insights into its future evolution.

Automated summary

Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy is a key goal of the UN General Assembly's Sustainable Development Goals. However, limited data availability on both the demand and supply sides in most low- and medium-income countries complicates the planning of a supply system. This paper analyzes the electricity demand in Karachi, Pakistan, considering factors such as climate change, socioeconomic factors, and distributed generation through renewable energy to provide insights into its future evolution.