Spatial spread of epidemic with Allee effect

Article Physics, Fluids & Plasmas

Front propagation in a spatial system of weakly interacting networks

Evgeniy Khain et al.

Summary: This article investigates the spread of epidemics in a spatial metapopulation system composed of weakly interacting patches. Stochastic particle simulations using the SIR model show that the spatial spread of epidemics exhibits a propagating front after a short transient period. Theoretical analysis reveals that the speed of front propagation is determined by an effective diffusion coefficient and the local proliferation rate, similar to fronts described by the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation. To determine the speed of front propagation, analytical computations are conducted for the early-time dynamics in a local patch, assuming a constant disease duration. The resulting delay differential equation is solved to obtain the local growth exponent, and the reaction diffusion equation is derived from the effective master equation to determine the effective diffusion coefficient and the overall proliferation rate. A correction to the front propagation speed is obtained by taking into account the fourth order derivative in the reaction diffusion equation. The analytical results are in good agreement with stochastic particle simulations.

PHYSICAL REVIEW E (2023)

添加到收藏夹

Article Biology

Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics

Matias Arim et al.

Summary: This study reveals the contact tracing saturation phenomenon induces an Allee effect, which affects the transition between containment and outbreak states. The timing of implementing and relaxing non-pharmaceutical interventions is crucial for their effectiveness. Combining different strategies can enhance disease control potential.

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY (2022)

添加到收藏夹

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

The construction and visualization of the transmission networks for COVID-19: A potential solution for contact tracing and assessments of epidemics

Caiying Luo et al.

Summary: The WHO declared COVID-19 as a pandemic due to its rapid and extensive transmission. By analyzing epidemiological data, constructing disease transmission networks, and visualizing transmission networks, we can trace transmission sources and contacts, assess the current situation, and provide evidence for global response and control. Differences in transmission characteristics across regions can help evaluate the situation and prevention measures.

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS (2021)

添加到收藏夹

Article Public, Environmental & Occupational Health